Popcorn and Missed Pours: Streaming Movies That BELONGED on the Big Screen

The cinematic world had been caught playing catch up when KPOP: Demon Hunter Sing-Along suddenly dropped into theaters and claimed the #1 spot this past weekend. Its win in theaters should leave audiences and “industry insiders” (aka streamers and theaters) alike asking whether other streaming originals have quietly been waiting in the wings all along. Remember the success of Taylor Swift concert films greeting fans at theaters with ecstatic applause and ringing registers? With that in mind, I can imagine even more such theatrical surprises by examining some of the major films made for streaming platforms since the pandemic that may have missed HUGE opportunities in making back some of their budget.

I wrote about this once before, but now let’s take a deeper look at movies like The Gorge, Greyhound on Apple TV, Happy Gilmore 2, Rebel Moon Part One and Rebel Moon Part Two, and five additional acclaimed streaming originals, estimate their possible box office over a four week run, and then explore what this could mean for the future of theaters and how to put it into practice. [Estimates and some other research were created using an advanced ChatGPT prompt to research trends and other factors.]

Streaming Films That Could Have Done Well in Theaters

1. The Gorge (Apple TV+) – 2025
This intense survival thriller from Apple TV brings together breathtaking visuals and high stakes drama. It has earned praise for its gritty storytelling and immersive cinematography. We especially loved it and have seen it twice. In a four week theatrical window it could have earned somewhere in the neighborhood of $25 million to $35 million domestically, assuming a solid per-screen average in the mid-range. Over a global release that reaches Europe and Asia it might have hit $50 million to $70 million. That kind of theatrical boost would not only recoup production and marketing expenses, it could generate real profit and prestige for Apple’s film arm.

2. Greyhound (Apple TV+) – July 10, 2020
Tom Hanks starred in this tense World War II naval drama. Released during the height of the pandemic, it premiered exclusively on streaming, meaning it bypassed theaters entirely. But with its star power and gripping story it could have drawn WWII and submarine audiences. In a four week theatrical stretch it may have taken in $40 million domestically, and with international traction perhaps up to $80 million worldwide. Those numbers would have gone a long way toward paying back its budget and building goodwill with exhibitors.

3. Happy Gilmore 2 (Netflix) – 2025
Nostalgia and a beloved comedic legacy combine here. While that type of sequel might not guarantee blockbuster status, it has a built-in fan base ready to return. A four week theatrical run, especially if timed during a holiday period or summer readaptation, might yield $70 million domestically, plus $40 million internationally, totaling about $110 million. That level of return could easily offset production costs and generate profit.

4. Rebel Moon Part One: A Child of Fire (Netflix) – December 22, 2023
This sprawling space opera directed by Zack Snyder has the kind of scale and visual spectacle tailor made for the big screen. The fly in the ointment is Snyder’s storytelling and general fan reception. But, both films were visually fun to watch. A four week run could see $80 million domestically, and given genre appeal, perhaps $120 million internationally, for total box office nearing $200 million. That kind of haul would rival mid-size studio blockbusters.

5. Rebel Moon Part Two: The Scargiver (Netflix) – April 19, 2024
The sequel could follow in Part One’s footsteps. In a four week window the domestic might land at $70 million, international at $110 million, totaling around $180 million. Sequels often carry repeating audiences and marketing synergy, so these are well within reach. Both movies could have also really benefitted from release the “Snyder Cuts” as well…

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24/Showtime, later streaming) – March 25, 2022
Though this film actually began in theaters and then found new life on streaming, reverse the process and imagine premiering it straight to streaming but later giving it a theatrical window. Its awards success and word of mouth could have driven $90 million domestically in four weeks, $60 million internationally, total $150 million. Its unique tone might limit blockbuster status, but awards momentum can move serious numbers.

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – October 16, 2020
This historical courtroom drama by an acclaimed director could easily get people back into theaters. A four week run might yield $50 million domestic, $40 million international, totalling $90 million. That would be a win for serious streaming dramas.

8. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – December 24, 2021
This satirical disaster film already generated tons of conversation. In theaters, it might have performed like other politically themed comedies with ensemble casts — say $70 million domestic, $60 million international, roughly $130 million in total.

9. CODA (Apple TV+) – August 13, 2021
As a feel-good Oscar winner, it has heart and momentum. In theaters it could rise to $60 million domestic, $50 million international, total $110 million. That kind of family-friendly acclaim can bring in steady audiences.

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) – November 23, 2022
The sequel to a beloved whodunnit already proved its worth on streaming. On the big screen it might have drawn $80 million domestic, $50 million international, for a solid $130 million total. That would establish it as a theatrical franchise, not just a streaming exclusive.

Table of Streaming Originals and Estimated Four-Week Box Office Potential

Streaming Films (2018-2024) That Had Limited Theatrical Runs for Oscar Eligibility

1. Roma (2018, Netflix)
   Had a limited theatrical release in the U.S. starting November 21, 2018, before streaming on Netflix in December. This qualified it for Oscars, ultimately earning 10 nominations and taking home three awards.

2. The Irishman (2019, Netflix)
   Premiered on streaming later in November, but first hit theaters in a limited release starting November 1, 2019. That made it eligible for awards even though the theatrical window was brief.

3. Mank (2020, Netflix)
   Released in a limited theatrical run beginning November 13, 2020, followed by streaming on Netflix in December.

4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (2020, Netflix)
   Though similar in its awards campaign style, this courtroom drama also received a limited theatrical release before streaming (typical for Netflix Oscar hopefuls), in keeping with Academy rules.

5. CODA (2021, Apple TV+)
   Released with a limited theatrical run before its streaming debut on Apple TV+. This paved the way to its historic Best Picture win at the Oscars.

6. Nomadland (2020/2021, Hulu/Disney-acquired Searchlight film)
   Though produced by Searchlight, its main release strategy included a theatrical run, wide and IMAX theatrical release from February 19, 2021, simultaneous to its streaming on Hulu. This assured its Oscar eligibility and contributed to its Best Picture win.

7. Maestro (2023, Netflix)
   Received a limited theatrical release starting November 22, 2023, followed by its Netflix debut in December. It earned multiple Oscar nominations in 2024.

8. Juror #2 (2024, Max)
   Initially intended for streaming, Warner Bros. arranged a very limited theatrical run on November 1, 2024, prior to its Max release, likely to enable awards consideration.

Under current Academy rules, a film must complete a minimum theatrical run, typically at least seven consecutive days in a commercial theater in Los Angeles County (with a specific schedule and paid admission), to be eligible for Oscars. Without such a run, even high‑profile streaming originals are disqualified. This requirement was relaxed only temporarily during the pandemic, but has since been reinstated.

That is why streaming services routinely organize these brief runs, often in LA and New York, to comply with the Oscars eligibility and launch their awards campaigns.

Implications for Theaters’ Futures and How to Implement

The numbers above suggest that a wide range of streaming originals, action-packed, award-winning, family friendly, genre fare, could achieve meaningful box office returns in a well-executed four-week theatrical run. If studios and streamers embraced a hybrid release model, theaters would benefit from new content, audiences could rediscover the magic of communal viewing, and streamers and filmmakers could recover part of their investment while building awareness and prestige.

Here is how the model could work in practice:

1. Windowing Strategy
   Platforms could partner with distributors to schedule a limited theatrical run, say 4 to 6 weeks, for high-profile streaming originals immediately after or even before wide streaming release. The exclusivity window would incentivize theater attendance, while streaming remains the long-tail distribution channel. Also, it could regenerate good will between streamers and theaters. There IS room for both theatrical time with cocktails and movies and friends AND home viewing.

2. Targeted Marketing
   Promotional campaigns would need to be tailored to highlight theatrical release as an event. For example, Rebel Moon could be pitched as a visual spectacle best experienced on the big screen; CODA could be presented as an immersive feel-good story to share with family; Greyhound could be sold on Tom Hanks aboard a battleship in surround sound.

3. Premium Pricing and Eventization
   Theaters could treat these films like special events by using premium pricing, exclusive bonus content such as behind-the-scenes features, or live Q&A sessions with creators. That strategy worked well for Taylor Swift concert films and could work with these.

4. Revenue Sharing Models
   Streaming platforms and theaters would need to negotiate revenue splits. A promising approach is for gate receipts to be shared after a base threshold, ensuring theaters benefit while platforms cover their costs.

5. Release Calendars That Avoid Congestion
   Coordinating release calendars to avoid competition with major theatrical tentpoles is key. A drama like The Trial of the Chicago 7 might do well in an early spring slot; sci-fi epics like Rebel Moon might thrive in a mid-summer window.

6. Data-Driven Selections
   Streamers can analyze viewing data to identify which titles have earned the most buzz or positive feedback. Those films, when transitioned to theaters, are more likely to find receptive audiences.

Implementing such a hybrid theatrical strategy would strengthen ties between streamers and exhibitors. It would signal that streaming-originated films are not second-class citizens but legitimate theatrical contenders. It would also give theaters a new lifeline of content that is both culturally relevant and financially promising.

Conclusion
The sudden theatrical success of KPOP: Demon Hunter is a reminder that audiences still cherish the theater experience when given the chance. As Taylor Swift concert films have shown, event-style releases can generate excitement, box office revenue, and social buzz. The films we have discussed, from The Gorge to Rebel Moon, from CODA to Don’t Look Up, demonstrate the wide variety of streaming originals that could translate into profitable theatrical runs. By carefully selecting titles, coordinating marketing and release windows, and building collaborative revenue strategies, streaming platforms and theaters can find a mutually beneficial path forward. In an evolving entertainment landscape, combining the intimacy of home viewing with the spectacle of the big screen could be the script for tomorrow’s hits.